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FAQs

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Prediction Terminal is a platform for comparing and analysing prediction trends and opportunities across different prediction markets.

Prediction Terminal is neither a prediction market, nor is it affiliated with any prediction market. Prediction Terminal does not support trading and only aggregates and displays data from prediction markets.

Prediction Terminal allows users to compare odds and notional values of predictions across different markets.

This allows users to compare similar predictions to find the best opportunities and manage risk.

Prediction markets are platforms where people trade on the outcome of future events, such as elections, sports, crypto prices, business events, and world news.

Prediction market odds are based on trader activity and public sentiment at a point in time. The odds represent the market's estimated probability of an event happening. For example, 70% odds means the market believes there is a 70% chance the outcome will occur.

Traditional betting is usually against a bookmaker (house) that sets the odds.

Prediction markets are driven by users trading against each other, with prices changing based on market sentiment and new information. The odds are set by market activity — as people buy and sell positions, the probability changes in real time to reflect the public's expectations.

Polymarket — One of the largest crypto-based prediction markets where users trade on real-world event outcomes.

Kalshi — A US-regulated exchange where users can trade event contracts (predictions) under CFTC oversight.

The results on the page refresh every 15 minutes.

For each category (i.e. Trending, Economics, Politics and Sports), the following is displayed:

For each prediction market, the top 100 predictions based on the notional and all predictions above $1 million notional are displayed.

Notional is represented for each prediction (e.g. who is most likely to be president?) as a dollar value. This contrasts odds, which are displayed at an outcome level (e.g. candidate A, candidate B, etc).

On some prediction websites, the equivalent figure may be denoted as a dollar value referred to as 'volume'.

We have chosen to represent this figure as 'notional' as to not collate this figure with other distinct figures such as Open Interest or Quantity available on some prediction markets.